What do Two Phases of Elections in UP Indicate for the Next Phases?
Looking at the trend of the last several elections in Uttar Pradesh, it is generally said that wherever the political wind blows in the first and second phases ie in western UP, the wind blows in that direction till the end. But it seems this time the wind is also changing its direction according to the region.
This time the issues during the UP assembly elections were almost the same which were already being understood. The issues which the ruling party BJP itself tried to reach to the people, did not become issues. The Farmers movement was a major factor in western Uttar Pradesh and remained a major issue in the region despite the withdrawal of the law.
The BJP tried to suppress the effect of the Farmer's Movement with various things like law and order, goondaraj, exodus of Kairana and Muzaffarnagar riots, but those who had rejected these issues did not try to come back again. Yes, it did have an effect on some people, but not so much that they would once again bet on BJP.
BJP tried to suppress the effect of the Farmer's Movement
Image Credit: Ismat Ara/The Wire
The areas of western Uttar Pradesh, where elections have been held in two phases, have most of Muslim population. It was believed that the SP-RLD alliance would give tickets to more Muslim candidates and that could incite the Jat voters and if not, the Muslims could get infuriated but it did not happen. There was some displeasure over ticket distribution, but neither did it affect the voting of Jats nor that of Muslims. After roaming in all the areas of western Uttar Pradesh, it seems that the division of Muslim votes has become negligible. Most of the Muslim voters were seen standing in favour of the alliance this time and they voted in favour of the coalition candidates. Despite this, the coalition had given less tickets to Muslim candidates even after the population was high.
Karnataka's Hijab controversy was also discussed a lot in UP, but if the Hindu-Muslim card has not worked in the first two phases, then there is little hope of going ahead. As far as the third phase is concerned, this area is a Yadav dominated area, and the hold of the Samajwadi Party is already strong here. But considering the move of some leaders of the Yadav fraternity and family members of SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav to the BJP and its success in the last assembly elections, it seems that the position of BJP is not very weak.
Karnataka's Hijab controversy was also discussed a lot in UP
Image Credit; AP
Many political issues are also decided according to the regions, but there are some issues that remain the same from west to east, only their form changes. For example, the impact of the farmers' movement is across the state but except in some parts of western UP and central UP, it is not discussed in the least in the way that it will be able to influence the voting pattern. In areas like Bundelkhand, Awadh and Purvanchal, other issues of farmers, such as expensive fertilizers, expensive diesel and electricity, are effective.
The caste equations in Purvanchal are looking completely different from the West. In the West, there was a greater inclination towards the BJP among the people of Other Backward Classes, while in the Purvanchal, the Samajwadi Party alliance has made a big dent in it this time. The problem of stray animals is there in the entire state, but in Bundelkhand this problem is old, but the other thing is that keeping in mind the problem of stray animals, hardly anyone has voted till now or will hardly do so in future.
In the remaining phases of UP, especially in the Purvanchal areas, the caste equations of the backward castes are not showing in favour of the BJP as it was seen in the last three elections i.e. 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 2017 Assembly elections and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But it is also true that BJP is not unaware of this truth and its election strategies are being made keeping all these things in mind.
Samiratmaj Mishra is a senior journalist and has been a correspondent for the BBC for a long time. He is currently associated with German public broadcaster DW and editor of YouTube channel 'The Ground Report'.
This analysis is the third article in the series being made about the UP elections. In this series, the review of the political equations of the UP elections 2022 and the public's trend will continue.
